The Society of Surgical Oncology, inc.
The American Society of Breast Surgeons.
Annals of Surgical Oncology

Log in | Register

Integrated Nomograms for Preoperative Prediction of Microvascular Invasion and Lymph Node Metastasis Risk in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Yongcong Yan MD, PhD, Qianlei Zhou MD, PhD, Mengyu Zhang MD, PhD, Haohan Liu BS, Jianhong Lin BS, Qinghua Liu MD, PhD, Bingchao Shi BS, Kai Wen BS, Ruibin Chen BS, Jie Wang MD, PhD, Kai Mao MD, PhD, Zhiyu Xiao MD, PhD
Hepatobiliary Tumors
Online First ™ - November , 2019

Abstract

Background

The aim of the present work is to develop and validate accurate preoperative nomograms to predict microvascular invasion (MVI) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patients and Methods

A total of 268 patients with resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were divided into a training set (n = 180), in an earlier period, and a validation set (n = 88), thereafter. Risk factors for MVI and LNM were assessed based on logistic regression. Blood signatures were established using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm. Nomograms were constructed by combining risk factors and blood signatures. Performance was evaluated using the training set and validated using the validation set. The clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis.

Results

The risk factors for MVI were hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA loading, portal hypertension, Barcelona liver clinic (BCLC) stage, and three computerized tomography (CT) imaging features, namely tumor number, size, and encapsulation, while only BCLC stage, Child–Pugh classification, and tumor encapsulation were associated with LNM. The nomogram incorporating both risk factors and blood signatures achieved better performance in predicting MVI in the training and validation sets (C-indexes of 0.828 and 0.804) than the LNM nomogram (C-indexes of 0.765 and 0.717). Calibration curves also demonstrated a good fit. The decision curves indicate significant clinical usefulness.

Conclusions

The novel validated nomograms for HCC patients presented herein are noninvasive preoperative tools that can effectively predict the individualized risk of MVI and LNM, and this predictive power can aid doctors in explaining the illness for patient counseling.

Add a comment



0 comment(s)

ANNALS ON SOCIAL MEDIA

@AnnSurgOncol 

Join the conversation!

Follow the journal on Twitter and Facebook

Help to expand the reach of the journal to support the research and practice needs of surgical oncologists and their patients.